Russia launched its 2025 spring offensive in early April. Russia will likely wait for this campaign to culminate to solidify gains prior to committing to a ceasefire. Russia's winter-spring campaign in Luhansk Oblast lasted from January to June, Ukraine's 2022 Kherson counteroffensive lasted from August to November, and in general major operations during the war have lasted several months. Russia may be more willing to negotiate if the offensive is a catastrophic failure, and Ukraine may be more willing if Russia achieves a breakthrough. However, I do not consider either of these scenarios likely, especially a breakthrough sufficient to force Kyiv to accede to Moscow's demands.
The initial discussions for the Gaza ceasefire began in April 2024, and the ceasefire went into effect January 2025, nine months later. Negotiations with the Trump administration began in February 2025, putting an expected timeline for a ceasefire around November 2025. However, Hamas and Israel had stronger incentives to negotiate in the form of military asymmetry for Hamas and hostages for Israel.
I expect Russia will be slightly less likely to conclude a ceasefire in the fall as it will want to ramp up attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
I believe 2026 is a more likely year for a ceasefire to be implemented if Russia believes the 2026 US midterms will make the probability of more military packages to Ukraine increase. Otherwise it will press its advantages and stall. I do not believe the Trump administration alone has enough leverage to force either Russia or Ukraine to give up enough to achieve a ceasefire while Russia continues to make gains.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I believe the most likely scenario for a ceasefire is one imposed on Ukraine under extremely negative terms for it. If the Trump administration exerts strong pressure on the Ukrainian government (e.g. halting intelligence sharing and delivery of remaining supplies) and Europe does not take meaningful steps towards increasing its level of support) that the state may be forced to accept a ceasefire.
Why do you think you're right?
Russia launched its 2025 spring offensive in early April. Russia will likely wait for this campaign to culminate to solidify gains prior to committing to a ceasefire. Russia's winter-spring campaign in Luhansk Oblast lasted from January to June, Ukraine's 2022 Kherson counteroffensive lasted from August to November, and in general major operations during the war have lasted several months. Russia may be more willing to negotiate if the offensive is a catastrophic failure, and Ukraine may be more willing if Russia achieves a breakthrough. However, I do not consider either of these scenarios likely, especially a breakthrough sufficient to force Kyiv to accede to Moscow's demands.
The initial discussions for the Gaza ceasefire began in April 2024, and the ceasefire went into effect January 2025, nine months later. Negotiations with the Trump administration began in February 2025, putting an expected timeline for a ceasefire around November 2025. However, Hamas and Israel had stronger incentives to negotiate in the form of military asymmetry for Hamas and hostages for Israel.
I expect Russia will be slightly less likely to conclude a ceasefire in the fall as it will want to ramp up attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
I believe 2026 is a more likely year for a ceasefire to be implemented if Russia believes the 2026 US midterms will make the probability of more military packages to Ukraine increase. Otherwise it will press its advantages and stall. I do not believe the Trump administration alone has enough leverage to force either Russia or Ukraine to give up enough to achieve a ceasefire while Russia continues to make gains.
Why might you be wrong?
I believe the most likely scenario for a ceasefire is one imposed on Ukraine under extremely negative terms for it. If the Trump administration exerts strong pressure on the Ukrainian government (e.g. halting intelligence sharing and delivery of remaining supplies) and Europe does not take meaningful steps towards increasing its level of support) that the state may be forced to accept a ceasefire.