o-maverick
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
55% (+45%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
21% (-9%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
12% (-23%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
12% (-13%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Ceasefire conditions are coming into place, and the negotiations are advancing. If it is true that Russia regained control over Kursk, that would mean a lot for the ceasefire talks. The ball will be on the US/Ukraine side, as Russia now has full control of the situation. Plus, Washington has made the political decision to end the war - and it is in a hurry to deliver. The control of the timeline of the peace terms will be on the Russian side, not the other way.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/26/world/europe/russia-kursk-ukraine.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dj4402qejo

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-signal-start-direct-peace-talks-should-come-ukraine-2025-04-28/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/26/russia-says-it-has-fully-retaken-kursk-but-ukraine-says-fighting-continues

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/trump-zelenskyy-crimea-ukraine-russia-putin-rubio-francis-korea-peace-rcna203247


Files
Why might you be wrong?

Europe and/or Zelensky could take a hard stance and hamper Trump's peace attempts.

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