I continue to asses the Russia is significantly bogged down in Ukraine to not gain from starting another war. They have taken almost no territory in the last year and are relying on troops and supplies from North Korea. If a lasting ceasefire or peace is established in Ukraine, it is unlikely to be an opportune time to invade Estonia or Latvia. Even if the US significantly weakens its support for NATO, or completely abandons NATO, the Baltic and Nordic countries as well as Poland and the UK are likely to provide direct military support.
While I consider the odds of an invasion of Lithuania still very low, due to the Suwałki gap between Poland and Lithuania that connects Kaliningrad (Russia) with Belarus, there is a slight chance that a dispute could erupt regarding Russian access to Kaliningrad or a desire to make a permanent land bridge. At 2% this is still a very small chance.
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Why might you be wrong?
If the Baltics get into direct fighting with Russia over Ukraine, it is possible that Russia would attack on or all of the countries in retaliation.
Why do you think you're right?
I continue to asses the Russia is significantly bogged down in Ukraine to not gain from starting another war. They have taken almost no territory in the last year and are relying on troops and supplies from North Korea. If a lasting ceasefire or peace is established in Ukraine, it is unlikely to be an opportune time to invade Estonia or Latvia. Even if the US significantly weakens its support for NATO, or completely abandons NATO, the Baltic and Nordic countries as well as Poland and the UK are likely to provide direct military support.
While I consider the odds of an invasion of Lithuania still very low, due to the Suwałki gap between Poland and Lithuania that connects Kaliningrad (Russia) with Belarus, there is a slight chance that a dispute could erupt regarding Russian access to Kaliningrad or a desire to make a permanent land bridge. At 2% this is still a very small chance.
Why might you be wrong?
If the Baltics get into direct fighting with Russia over Ukraine, it is possible that Russia would attack on or all of the countries in retaliation.