India-Pakistan 4 wars and 2 conflicts since 1947. Siachen conflict over many years does exceed 100 uniformed casualites, but less than 100 per year, and 2025 conflict does not. Many other skirmishes with <100 casualties. Base rate 5.1% chance per year. Four months is on third of that...1.7%
Details of May 2025 conflict, https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/, Both sides have been tested, shown little desire to escalate, will likely be cautious in the near term. Note, May 2025 conflict did not involve over 100 casualties and most were not uniformed. So even a repeat would not count. U.S. did engage towards deescalating. Inside reasoning suggests rounding down to 1%. Also, all the wars were before nuclear weapons on both sides. As there is some chance that a conflict involves more than 100 casualties and one death, I cannot say 0%
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Political instability on either side may lead opportunistic conflicts. Terrorist attack triggered May 2025. Could happen again.
Why do you think you're right?
Battle deaths for India and Pakistan in recent years from World Bank
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.BTL.DETH?end=2023&locations=IN-PK&start=1989&view=chart
India-Pakistan 4 wars and 2 conflicts since 1947. Siachen conflict over many years does exceed 100 uniformed casualites, but less than 100 per year, and 2025 conflict does not. Many other skirmishes with <100 casualties. Base rate 5.1% chance per year. Four months is on third of that...1.7%
Details of May 2025 conflict, https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/, Both sides have been tested, shown little desire to escalate, will likely be cautious in the near term. Note, May 2025 conflict did not involve over 100 casualties and most were not uniformed. So even a repeat would not count. U.S. did engage towards deescalating. Inside reasoning suggests rounding down to 1%. Also, all the wars were before nuclear weapons on both sides. As there is some chance that a conflict involves more than 100 casualties and one death, I cannot say 0%
Why might you be wrong?
Political instability on either side may lead opportunistic conflicts. Terrorist attack triggered May 2025. Could happen again.