Confirmed previous forecast
-0.084457
Relative Brier Score
31
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 5 | 34 | 31 | 34 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 23 | 22 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
x
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Less than $21.0 billion
89%
(+5%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
2%
(-3%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
1%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
x
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-3%)
Less than $21.0 billion
84%
(+3%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
x
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-9%)
Less than $21.0 billion
81%
(+14%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
5%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
2%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
4%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
x
Files
Why might you be wrong?
x
Files