Confirmed previous forecast
0.184125
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
6%
(-5%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
25%
(-12%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
43%
(+10%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
26%
(+7%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
11%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
37%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
33%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
19%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Air / maritime ceasefire seems likely to be the first stage. Furthermore, Putin is dragging his heels with the negotiations => April-June unlikely.
Kursk does seem to be a "sticking point" and summer time may be enough provide Russia time to clear out AFU from the region before committing to a ceasefire.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump does have a habit of "just doing things" so a ceasefire could come all at once. Furthermore, he does have a relationship with Putin which can further move things along.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Both sides seem to want it, but Putin will squeeze Trump for everything he has got. If a ceasefire is to happen, it does seem like it will firstly be an air and / or maritime ceasefire. Both of these points do suggest a protracted process towards a ceasefire applicable to the "entire conflict zone", however I feel there is a strong confluence between Russia taking back control of Kursk and a ceasefire coming to fruition. Again, this could be a long, drawn out process, but my gut feel tells me this may fall into place very, very quickly given the right conditions.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictability of Putin - of course.
Further deterioration of Putin-Trump relations (Trump has shown signs of irritation).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Update
Why might you be wrong?
Update