MHidalgo

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022) 0.108605
Nov 14, 2022 02:43PM UTC Will Google score more wins than any other submitter in the next round of the MLPerf training benchmarking suite? 0.066722
Nov 09, 2022 02:00PM UTC How many total unique AI systems will Baidu and Alibaba submit for the next round of the MLPerf benchmarking suite? 0.051663
Aug 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 -0.067016
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.01579
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022? 0.032975
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? 0.026374
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? -0.014826
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.478209
Feb 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.010643
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 0.037163
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