Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 93 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 52 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 29, 2025 04:56AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 29, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
80%
(0%)
No
Aug 29, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 30, 2025 09:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
80%
No
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Too much tension because of the war in other countries.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe they want to be part of the conflict
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Apr 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.