Hi @joshloughman,
Since the index is formally named "S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index", then I suggest the summary version in the Question would be better as "home prices" not "home costs".
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
New Comment
New Comment
I would try to get at this a little differently. I would hate to be right when millions are killed.
How about: "Of the x classes of major catastrophic events, what percentage of them human-caused events will global AI regulations be designed to prevent by 2030?"
or human and hybrid human/natural events?
Or what percentage of countries will adopt AI regulations to prevent at least 1 of them?
@crimeforecast , your thoughts?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Historical relationship:
2006–2011: Index ↓, delinquencies ↑
2011–present: Index ↑, delinquencies ↓
Current trend: Delinquencies are low but starting to rise.
I assign a 90% probability to “no”—the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index will not exceed 350 by July 2027.
Rationale:
Historically, significant increases in the index have coincided with very low mortgage delinquency rates.
Recent data show delinquency rates are beginning to rise, suggesting upward pressure on home prices may be weakening.
For the index to reach 350, delinquency rates would need to remain extremely low (below 1.3%), which appears unlikely given current trends.
Why might you be wrong?
If housing supply remains constrained and household incomes rise—perhaps because inflation leads to higher wages as well as higher profits—then home prices could continue to increase even if mortgage delinquencies rise. In this scenario, strong demand and greater purchasing power could offset the negative effects of higher delinquencies, causing the index to reach 350 despite my initial expectations.