Forecasted Questions
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 03:39PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2025 03:39PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 03:41PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2025 03:41PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 10% | +10% | -26% |
| No | 80% | 90% | -10% | +26% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 06:00PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 06:00PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 5% | 2% | +3% | -3% |
| Not before 2026 | 95% | 98% | -3% | +3% |
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 06:10PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 06:10PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $21.0 billion | 5% | 21% | -16% | +14% |
| More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion | 63% | 43% | +20% | +9% |
| More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion | 32% | 14% | +18% | -8% |
| More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion | 0% | 9% | -9% | -9% |
| More than or equal to $25.0 billion | 0% | 13% | -13% | -6% |