Confirmed previous forecast
0.015504
Relative Brier Score
152
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 152 | 152 | 152 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 117 | 117 | 117 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
5%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
95%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Sep 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Final forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Final forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Final forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Final forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(+1%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Final forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An update to the data from earlier in the month could push the numbers
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
5%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
95%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 24, 2025 03:50PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2025 to Mar 24, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2025 to Mar 24, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
This one has been hard to predict because of the uncertainty in the resolution criteria. I decided to shift my forecast to be more in line with the crowd, but I have since decided to focus solely on the NDAA and not include any money appropriated through the Reconciliation Law. The current combined authorization from the house is slightly over $21B and the Senate version is not much different. It's likely that we stay in the second bucket given previous budgets.
Why might you be wrong?
The government shutdown could affect these numbers.