43rd
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 18, 2025 05:05AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2027 Mar 18, 2026 6%
No 99% Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2027 Mar 18, 2026 94%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 18, 2025 05:05AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026 Jan 18, 2026 1%
No 99% Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026 Jan 18, 2026 99%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 18, 2025 05:05AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 1% 6%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 2% 3%
Kazakhstan 1% 1%
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