Historical drug seizures for July.
Immigration crackdowns discouraging travel to the USA.
-0.028417
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Trump admin might look for new ways to indicate they are “succeeding.” Going after drugs seems to be a fair/easy target with various crackdowns.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating this forecast based on the pattern of increased seizures over the past few months.
Why might you be wrong?
Other than the ramping up of seizures in the past few months, there are no other discernible patterns across the past few years.