Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 514 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 306 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 98 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 7, 2025 to Dec 7, 2026
93%
(0%)
No
Jun 7, 2025 to Dec 7, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 18, 2025 to Oct 18, 2026
93%
(-3%)
No
Apr 18, 2025 to Oct 18, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
increasing with world instability (trump)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
mad man theory
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 27, 2025 09:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
Yes
Jan 27, 2025 to Jul 27, 2026
96%
No
Jan 27, 2025 to Jul 27, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
No incentive to change paradigm.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin is crazy.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-29%)
Yes
95%
(+29%)
No
Reduction with time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-4%)
Yes
100%
(+4%)
No
Not happening.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(-23%)
Yes
66%
(+23%)
No
With crowd
Files