Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2025 04:45PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Apr 08, 2025 04:45PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 67% | 67% | +0% | +15% |
| 30 days | 10% | 6% | +4% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 7% | 6% | +1% | -5% |
| 61-90 days | 7% | 5% | +2% | -6% |
| 91 days or more | 9% | 16% | -7% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 08, 2025 01:10PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 08, 2025 01:10PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 3% | -1% | 0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 08, 2025 01:10PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Jun 08, 2025 01:10PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 2% | +2% | -2% |
| No | 96% | 98% | -2% | +2% |
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 15, 2025 08:11PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 15, 2025 08:11PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $21.0 billion | 0% | 21% | -21% | +21% |
| More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion | 0% | 43% | -43% | +21% |
| More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion | 5% | 14% | -9% | -15% |
| More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion | 19% | 9% | +10% | -8% |
| More than or equal to $25.0 billion | 76% | 13% | +63% | -19% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 14, 2025 02:04PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 14, 2025 02:04PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 6% | -1% | -1% |
| Armenia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 03, 2025 05:37PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 03, 2025 05:37PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 11% | +14% | -4% |
| No | 75% | 89% | -14% | +4% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2025 05:18PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 17, 2025 05:18PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | 17% | +0% | -5% |
| No | 83% | 83% | +0% | +5% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2025 11:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 26, 2025 11:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 97% | +3% | +1% |