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The procurement build-up (orders, production ramp-ups) is clear, but a delivery commitment especially by year-end 2025 remains uncertain.
THUNDART rocket demonstration firing is now scheduled for mid-2026.
Germany’s USD 57 million PULS deal/ ‘EuroPULS’, in February 2025 was advanced wt agreements between Nethderlands, Israel and Germany . KNDS +Elbit Systems actually signed a teaming agreement, but this takes time.
European governments and the EU are actively discussing larger defense-aid packages ; France is pushing for new solutions... some might be boosting procurement of systems like the Israel-built PULS and South Korea-built Chunmoo as alternatives. KNDS and Elbit could accelerate given the success of Dutch integration in 2025 of Puls
CSIS, IRIS, EU forecast point to a potential of a ceasefire and conservatively speaking the 30 day mark is the reasonably optimistic scenario.
policy change by the US administration
Why do you think you're right?
Kiel’s latest tracker (through Aug 2025) shows Europe narrowing and then overtaking the U.S. as new U.S. allocations stalled in 2025, while European flows continued.
French/Brussels sources corroborate durable EU pipelines: the €5 bn Ukraine Assistance Fund under the European Peace Facility and related pledges that keep European allocations coming even amid monthly volatility.
Bruegel analysis places early-2025 military totals at ~€62 bn (Europe) vs ~€64 bn (U.S.), with Europe gaining as 2025 progresses and U.S. policy stays frozen.
French media also report fresh national packages (e.g., France’s €2 bn in Mar 2025) and Europe’s move to structure longer-term support.
Why might you be wrong?
A large late-2025 U.S. supplemental would push the gap toward €10–20 bn; further EU top-ups or front-loaded deliveries would lift odds toward €30 bn+. Watch EPF/UAF decisions and any U.S. congressional action. French politicial crisis might negatively affect flows by Year end 2025...