Involved countries are less likely to agree on ceasefire for less than 2-3 months. High opportunity cost.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than 30 days
10%
30 days
29%
31-60 days
59%
61-90 days
0%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected external factors might trigger ending the ceasefire.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
KJI has announced a major policy shift that North Korea considers South Korea as an enemy and that North Korea will no longer keep unification as a policy goal. North Korea is gathering combat experience through sending troops to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Why might you be wrong?
North Korea might not have enough stocks of military equipments, as it sent many to Russia. North Korea might want to wait until 2026 or for a moment to start negotiating with the Trump 2.0 administration