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@johnnycaffeine on base rates: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/97840
OTOH @belikewater notes situation seems to have deteriorated more recently, including US embassy in Haiti urging US citizens to leave Haiti asap: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/97210
Ultimately coming up a little bit.
July 7 marked two years since Moïse's assassination [1].
Old (February) news: "[Henry] has pledged to leave office by Feb. 7, 2024, after postponing elections indefinitely in the wake of a devastating earthquake that affected the Southern Peninsula, along with gang violence." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/haitian-pm-installs-transition-council-prepare-long-awaited-elections-2023-02-07/
I doubt that there will actually be elections before Feb. 7, 2024. But "vigilante justice" seems to be working to stabilize Port-au-Prince and quell gang violence [2]. This makes me think an irregular transition is less likely than I thought previous.
[1] https://www.voanews.com/a/haiti-marks-2nd-anniversary-of-moise-s-assassination-/7172302.html
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/03/world/americas/haiti-crime-gangs-vigilantes.html
Passage of time!