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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? -0.000663
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? 0.004784
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? 0.003142
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? 0.00084
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? 0.212174
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? 0.518778
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.010574
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023) 0.0
Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023) -0.073383
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) 0.011727
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) 0.027073
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