RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2025 01:40PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	35%	4%	+31%	-30%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	65%	96%	-31%	+30%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 10, 2025 09:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	0%	21%	-21%	+17%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	65%	43%	+22%	+29%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	35%	14%	+21%	+2%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	0%	9%	-9%	-27%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	0%	13%	-13%	-21%

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 21, 2025 02:34PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

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