RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	0.001985
Dec 18, 2025 05:00PM UTC	What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?	-0.053595
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?	0.034759
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC	By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?	0.000411

Nicole-Hogge