Review Question
Good day,
//* NOTE: This is a GPT generated template of GJO question format ///
Absolutely, Brian. Here's a refined version of your draft with a few enhancements for clarity, neutrality, and consistency with Good Judgment Open (GJO) standards. I’ve streamlined some legal phrasing, tightened resolution criteria, and ensured neutrality in describing the Trump administration’s position.
GJO Forecasting Question Draft
Main Forecast Question
By June 30, 2025, will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of the position that federal courts lack the authority to issue nationwide injunctions in the consolidated birthright citizenship cases?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 50% |
| No | 50% |
Author
Description
Background & Context
In early 2025, the Trump administration reissued an executive order seeking to limit the application of birthright citizenship to children born in the United States to U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents. This directive challenges the longstanding interpretation of the 14th Amendment’s Citizenship Clause, which has historically granted citizenship to nearly all individuals born on U.S. soil, with narrow exceptions (e.g., children of foreign diplomats), as affirmed in *United States v. Wong Kim Ark* (1898).
Multiple federal district courts responded by issuing nationwide injunctions that blocked enforcement of the order. The administration challenged these rulings, arguing that such broad relief exceeds the proper scope of judicial authority.
The central issue before the Supreme Court in the consolidated cases (e.g., *Trump v. CASA*, *Trump v. Washington*) is whether lower federal courts can issue nationwide injunctions that apply beyond the parties directly involved in a case. This case does not primarily address the substance of the Citizenship Clause, but rather the procedural scope of judicial remedies.
Supporters of limiting nationwide injunctions argue they invite judicial overreach and inconsistent national policy, while opponents contend, they are necessary to ensure uniformity and prevent harm across jurisdictions.
Because the Court is hearing this case on an emergency basis, a final ruling is expected before the end of the term in June 2025.
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve based on the **final opinion issued by the Supreme Court** in the consolidated birthright citizenship injunction cases, specifically regarding the authority of lower courts to issue nationwide injunctions.
1. Yes – In favor of limiting or disallowing nationwide injunctions:
The majority opinion concludes that lower courts do **not** have the authority to issue nationwide injunctions, or significantly restricts such authority (e.g., injunctions must be limited to the plaintiffs or their jurisdictions).
2. No – Upholds or allows nationwide injunctions:
The majority opinion affirms or permits the use of nationwide injunctions by lower courts in this case, leaving the block on the executive order in place nationally.
3. Mixed or Unclear:
The opinion offers no clear ruling on the scope of nationwide injunctions or remands the issue without resolving the question. In this case, the question will resolve as “No” unless the majority opinion clearly adopts the administration’s position.
Clarification: The resolution team will use the Supreme Court's published opinion to determine the outcome. If the Court issues a narrow or fragmented decision, the resolution will be guided by the primary holding and legal effect regarding the scope of injunctions.
Why This Matters
Legal Precedent:
This case may reshape the use of nationwide injunctions, which have become increasingly common in challenges to executive actions in areas such as immigration, health care, and environmental regulation.
Executive Authority and Judicial Oversight:
A ruling in favor of the administration could limit the judiciary’s ability to block federal policies broadly, while a ruling against it may affirm expansive judicial remedies.
Wider Impact:
The ruling could affect how future challenges to executive orders are handled and may influence judicial strategies in politically sensitive cases.
Suggested Forecast Deadline
June 30, 2025 in line with the typical end of the Supreme Court’s term.
Related Forecasting Ideas
Will the Court address the merits of the birthright citizenship question directly by the end of 2025?
How many times will the Supreme Court rule on nationwide injunctions by the end of 2026?
What impact will this ruling have on future challenges to executive orders on immigration?
Would you like me to format this in a post-ready form for GJO (Markdown/HTML)? Or draft a follow-up "related question" series to deepen the thread?
Starts
May 15, 2025 03:28PM UTC
Closes
Jun 15, 2025 03:28PM UTC
Topics
Immigration
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