I realized I should probably go 1% across the board, since we live in an unpredictable world. Estonia for example I had at 0%, but this article details the preparations Estonia is making for just such a scenario. This article explains the things Russia is doing to eventually make a move on the Baltic nations.
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Why might you be wrong?
If the probabilities are higher than 1%, I'm probably underestimating Russia's ambitions as well as overestimating the deterrence from Nato.
Why do you think you're right?
I realized I should probably go 1% across the board, since we live in an unpredictable world. Estonia for example I had at 0%, but this article details the preparations Estonia is making for just such a scenario. This article explains the things Russia is doing to eventually make a move on the Baltic nations.
Why might you be wrong?
If the probabilities are higher than 1%, I'm probably underestimating Russia's ambitions as well as overestimating the deterrence from Nato.