Confirmed previous forecast
-0.098947
Relative Brier Score
193
Forecasts
45
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 8 | 211 | 193 | 1387 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 159 | 148 | 630 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 8 | 49 | 42 | 202 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 49 | 45 | 521 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(0%)
Yes
81%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
If I'm wrong, I think it will be because of the information uncovered by @o-maverick here, namely that FDA is explicitly signaling its strong intention to do so.