24th
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johnnycaffeine

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025) 0.146279
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? -0.000243
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? -0.03188
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? -0.002629
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? -0.000975
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.071077
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.000026
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.000234
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? -0.011286
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025? -0.048263
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? -0.008546
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? -0.001342
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? -0.000127
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.012185
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.002238
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.000399
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.000172
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.002246
Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM UTC Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? -0.032173
Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? 0.1496
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