Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025?

Started May 23, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 18, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Seasons

Gallup’s presidential job approval poll asks respondents whether they “approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president.” As of April 2025, President Donald Trump’s second term approval ratings have ranged between 43% to 47%, with its peak being shortly after his second term began in January 2025. For comparison, his job approval rating was 41% at a similar point in his first term. Overall, his first term approval rating averaged 41%, with a high of 49% and a low of 34%.

Resolution Criteria: 
This question will be resolved using Gallup's Presidential Approval Ratings for Donald Trump, and will be resolved as “Yes” if the “Last job approval rating” published by Gallup is higher than 45% at 5:00 pm ET on 1 August 2025.
Resolution Notes

Gallup's last job approval rating for President Trump was 37% on 1 August 2025. https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3%
No 97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 61
Number of Forecasts 401
Average for questions older than 6 months: 233
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.032988
2.
-0.027014
3.
-0.025661
4.
-0.024461
5.
-0.024332

Consensus Trend

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