Time
0.170701
Relative Brier Score
339
Forecasts
12
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 54 | 363 | 339 | 1820 |
| Comments | 16 | 43 | 258 | 242 | 824 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 29 | 60 | 49 | 153 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 106 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Moldova
0%
(-1%)
Armenia
0%
(-1%)
Georgia
0%
(-1%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Very quick ceasefire in Ukraine which gives Putin encouragement to take Moldova.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
49%
(+2%)
Yes
51%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Slightly tweaking
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Basically on the fence and will likely be within the 347-353 range at this stage
Files
New Comment
Post mortem: We (and I) underweighted what a shift July was in this, basically rendering historic base rates useless. To a lesser extent Thai military F15 capability and overweighted US influence on what is a historic/ colonial dispute.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(+1%)
Less than $350 million
40%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
14%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
Very small tweak
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Underestimated probability of a return to 2024 levels
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+2%)
Yes
0%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Morbid outcome: AP news are reporting this has met threshold. “About two dozen people were reported killed in the fighting this week” https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-border-dispute-fighting-displaced-64b20ab85a40fd80f98e6b9c3811bb43#
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(-1%)
Yes
79%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
3%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
97%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine agrees to give away the Donbas
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-26%)
Less than $21.0 billion
77%
(+25%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
12%
(+5%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
3%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
1%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Rethinking based on analysis of others
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+10%)
Yes
2%
(-10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Almost all in as further fatalities today, and even if there was another ceasefire right this very moment, I still think we have passed the threshold
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Deaths lower than reported by credible sources
Files
Can I please request clarification to if this remains unresolved based on current evidence? Thanks in advance
Let's share some:
Here are some links
The Guardian (December 11, 2025): Reports at least 20 killed and nearly 200 injured amid escalating clashes and mass evacuations.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/11/thailand-cambodia-border-evacuation
Al Jazeera (December 12, 2025): States at least 20 people killed across both countries (with nearly 200 wounded) since fighting resumed in early December.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/12/cambodia-thailand-fighting-enters-5th-day-thai-pm-confirms-trump-call
Reuters (December 14, 2025): Notes at least 16 soldiers and 10 civilians dead (totaling at least 26) since the latest clashes began in early December.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-declares-curfew-along-coast-cambodia-border-fighting-spreads-2025-12-14/