RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2025 05:33PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	33%	28%	+5%	+3%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	40%	45%	-5%	+2%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	20%	22%	-2%	-3%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	4%	5%	-1%	-1%
More than or equal to $800 million	3%	1%	+2%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2025 05:36PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 16, 2025 to May 16, 2026	Dec 16, 2025	2%	+3%	+1%
No	95%	Nov 16, 2025 to May 16, 2026	Dec 16, 2025	98%	-3%	-1%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2025 05:37PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2025 06:15PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	36%	46%	-10%	-3%
No	64%	54%	+10%	+3%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2025 03:16AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	33%	21%	+12%	+4%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	52%	43%	+9%	+8%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	7%	14%	-7%	+2%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	5%	9%	-4%	-3%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	3%	13%	-10%	-11%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:34PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	1%	+1%	-1%
No	98%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	99%	-1%	+1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:34PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026	Dec 28, 2025	99%	+1%	+1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:34PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2027	Feb 28, 2026	6%	-1%	+0%
No	95%	Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2027	Feb 28, 2026	94%	+1%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:34PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	7%	-4%	+0%
No	97%	93%	+4%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:34PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	4%	2%	+2%	+0%
Not before 2026	96%	98%	-2%	+0%

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