DippySkippy

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Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025? -0.000974
Jan 09, 2026 05:00PM UTC Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025? -0.000162
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025? -0.049724
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026? 0.002403
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? -0.004555
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025? -0.000317
Dec 18, 2025 05:00PM UTC What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act? -0.029322
Dec 11, 2025 09:34AM UTC Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive? -0.188905
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025) 0.052126
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? -0.007356
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? -0.040439
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? -0.00306
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? -0.001505
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025? -0.000744
Oct 01, 2025 02:45PM UTC According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025? 0.082792
Sep 06, 2025 12:56AM UTC How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest? -0.011732
Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM UTC What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? -0.030897
Aug 01, 2025 09:00PM UTC Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? -0.024332
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? 0.002257
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.0
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