RAND Forecasting Initiative

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:34PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	20%	+0%	-2%
No	80%	80%	+0%	+2%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:37PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	40%	42%	-2%	+2%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	40%	35%	+5%	+1%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	15%	15%	+0%	-3%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to $650 million	2%	2%	+0%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:37PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	22%	17%	+5%	-1%
No	78%	83%	-5%	+1%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	47%	55%	-8%	-6%
No	53%	45%	+8%	+6%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:40PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	3%	+3%	+0%
No	94%	97%	-3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:40PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:40PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 04:41PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 07:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 07:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

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