Update on latest talks
-0.909183
Relative Brier Score
1804
Forecasts
102
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 38 | 348 | 323 | 1804 |
| Comments | 10 | 24 | 239 | 223 | 805 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 29 | 60 | 49 | 153 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 102 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
EA College Tournament,
Iran-VNSAs,
Microelectronics
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(-7%)
Less than 30 days
5%
(-2%)
30 days
5%
(-2%)
31-60 days
5%
(-2%)
61-90 days
25%
(+13%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still seems hard to imagine Ukraine giving up the Donbas
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-4%)
Yes
93%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Latest progression of peace talks
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Europe yet to respond to latest talks, might be premature but would need talks to breakdown first and time tight
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
69%
(-1%)
Yes
31%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Sudden announcement
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Opening forecast, think this would be a major escalation that is hard to foresee within the timeframe
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Major escalation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(-1%)
Yes
87%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Why might you be wrong?
Tensions remain very high