Confirmed previous forecast
-0.23533
Relative Brier Score
362
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 20 | 363 | 20 | 1863 |
| Comments | 5 | 14 | 254 | 14 | 850 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 18 | 51 | 18 | 156 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 108 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-2%)
Yes
82%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
47%
(-4%)
Iván Cepeda
3%
(0%)
Sergio Fajardo
47%
(+4%)
Abelardo de la Espriella
3%
(0%)
Other
Why do you think you're right?
Latest polling data, seems like Cepeda’s ceiling is 30% for first preference.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
86%
Yes
14%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Not easy to establish any kind of base rate for this, but given Trump ‘support’ of her and the timeframe of this question, Yes for me is far more likely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictability is a/ the desired US foreign policy objective. Rodriguez doesn’t have enough room politically.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Estonia
0%
(-1%)
Latvia
0%
(-1%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Coming in slightly lower than crowd although agree with sentiment that base rates likely to slightly underestimate the probability
Why might you be wrong?
N/A