Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025?

Started Jun 18, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM UTC
Seasons

On 12 June 2025, Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran, targeting the country’s nuclear sites and military leadership (Brookings). While Israel launched strikes against the Natanz enrichment strike on the first day, it did not attack the Fordo site, long considered the most likely location for a nuclear weapons breakout program (CBS). The Fordo site is buried almost 300 feet beneath a mountain and is protected by significant air defenses (CBS). Recent news reports highlight how only the U.S. has the capability to deliver the GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (“bunker buster”) bomb needed to damage the facility (ABC). Moreover, the Trump Administration is reportedly considering joining Israel’s efforts to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities (BBC). 

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve “Yes” if the United States launches at least one kinetic strike against Iran before 00:00 ET on 1 August 2025. The strike must be launched by United States military forces, including American-controlled or -launched drone and missile attacks, against Iranian targets in Iran or Iranian military personnel, installations, or vessels in the region. 

The following will not be sufficient for resolution: 
  • Interceptions of Iranian missiles or unmanned drones. 
  • U.S. military support to Israel, including deliveries of ordnance which are then used to strike Iran
Resolution Notes

On 21 June 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that U.S. military forces struck Iran's Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-launch-new-attacks-after-tehran-rules-out-nuclear-talks-2025-06-21/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 64%
No 36%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 90
Average for questions older than 6 months: 61
Number of Forecasts 154
Average for questions older than 6 months: 233
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.2358
3.
-0.2308
4.
-0.217467
5.
-0.2158

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username