Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025?

Yes/No Opened 18 June 2025 Closed 1 August 2025 Resolved 23 June 2025 154 forecasts 90 forecasters

On 12 June 2025, Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran, targeting the country’s nuclear sites and military leadership (Brookings). While Israel launched strikes against the Natanz enrichment strike on the first day, it did not attack the Fordo site, long considered the most likely location for a nuclear weapons breakout program (CBS). The Fordo site is buried almost 300 feet beneath a mountain and is protected by significant air defenses (CBS). Recent news reports highlight how only the U.S. has the capability to deliver the GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (“bunker buster”) bomb needed to damage the facility (ABC). Moreover, the Trump Administration is reportedly considering joining Israel’s efforts to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities (BBC).
Resolution Criteria:This question will resolve “Yes” if the United States launches at least one kinetic strike against Iran before 00:00 ET on 1 August 2025. The strike must be launched by United States military forces, including American-controlled or -launched drone and missile attacks, against Iranian targets in Iran or Iranian military personnel, installations, or vessels in the region.
The following will not be sufficient for resolution:

Interceptions of Iranian missiles or unmanned drones.
U.S. military support to Israel, including deliveries of ordnance which are then used to strike Iran

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	92%	Happened
No	8%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Yes No

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.