| What will the global average temperature anomaly for June 2026 be according to NASA's GISTEMP analysis? |
Multiple choice |
112 |
27 Jul 2026 |
More than or equal to 1.15°C but…
|
| Will China’s official youth unemployment rate fall below 15% in any monthly report released by 31 July 2026? |
Yes/No |
240 |
27 Jul 2026 |
Yes
|
| Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China? |
Yes/No |
281 |
20 Jul 2026 |
No
|
| Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026? |
Yes/No |
532 |
1 Jul 2026 |
No
|
| Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026? |
Yes/No |
483 |
1 Jul 2026 |
No
|
| Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026? |
Yes/No |
327 |
1 Jul 2026 |
No
|
| Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? |
Multiple choice |
231 |
30 Jun 2026 |
Abelardo de la Espriella
|
| Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026? |
Yes/No |
146 |
2 Jun 2026 |
No
|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026? |
Yes/No |
286 |
12 May 2026 |
Yes
|
| Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026? |
Yes/No |
193 |
12 May 2026 |
No
|
| Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026? |
Yes/No |
227 |
8 May 2026 |
No
|
| How much net income will ASML report in Q1 2026? |
Multiple choice |
61 |
16 Apr 2026 |
More than or equal to €2.4 billion
|
| Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026? |
Yes/No |
377 |
8 Apr 2026 |
No
|
| Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026? |
Yes/No |
260 |
6 Apr 2026 |
No
|
| How much snowfall will Washington, DC receive in February 2026? |
Multiple choice |
152 |
6 Apr 2026 |
Less than 2
|
| How many incidents of piracy and armed robbery will be reported in the IMO GSIS database for February 2026? |
Multiple choice |
86 |
6 Apr 2026 |
Less than 8
|
| Will the average Arctic sea ice extent for March 2026 be the lowest on record for that month according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)? |
Yes/No |
216 |
6 Apr 2026 |
No
|
| What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report? |
Multiple choice |
600 |
31 Mar 2026 |
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
|
| What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report? |
Multiple choice |
645 |
31 Mar 2026 |
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
|
| Will Denis Sassou Nguesso win the 2026 Presidential election in the Republic of the Congo? |
Yes/No |
62 |
24 Mar 2026 |
Yes
|
| Will North Korea conduct a missile test between 1 February 2026 and 31 March 2026, inclusive? |
Yes/No |
103 |
16 Mar 2026 |
Yes
|
| How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025? |
Multiple choice |
279 |
12 Feb 2026 |
At least €20 billion but less tha…
|
| How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026? |
Multiple choice |
179 |
2 Feb 2026 |
16 or fewer
|
| Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025? |
Yes/No |
114 |
26 Jan 2026 |
No
|
| Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025? |
Yes/No |
571 |
26 Jan 2026 |
No
|
| What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act? |
Multiple choice |
201 |
7 Jan 2026 |
More than or equal to $21.0 billi…
|
| When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? |
Multiple choice |
862 |
2 Jan 2026 |
Not before 2026
|
| Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026? |
Multiple select |
916 |
2 Jan 2026 |
Any other African country with no…
|
| Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025? |
Yes/No |
425 |
2 Jan 2026 |
No
|
| Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026? |
Yes/No |
579 |
2 Jan 2026 |
No
|
| Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025? |
Yes/No |
664 |
2 Jan 2026 |
No
|
| Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025? |
Yes/No |
491 |
2 Jan 2026 |
No
|
| Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive? |
Yes/No |
122 |
19 Dec 2025 |
Yes
|
| How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025? |
Multiple choice |
803 |
27 Oct 2025 |
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
|
| Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? |
Multiple select |
475 |
4 Oct 2025 |
Not resolved
|
| Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? |
Multiple select |
612 |
4 Oct 2025 |
Not resolved
|
| How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025? |
Multiple choice |
784 |
1 Oct 2025 |
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
|
| Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? |
Yes/No |
682 |
1 Oct 2025 |
No
|
| How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025? |
Multiple choice |
386 |
1 Oct 2025 |
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
|
| How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? |
Multiple choice |
518 |
1 Oct 2025 |
Less than or equal to 1
|
| How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025? |
Multiple choice |
294 |
1 Oct 2025 |
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
|
| Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? |
Yes/No |
448 |
1 Oct 2025 |
No
|
| By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? |
Yes/No |
462 |
1 Oct 2025 |
No
|
| According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025? |
Yes/No |
269 |
1 Oct 2025 |
No
|
| According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025? |
Yes/No |
264 |
1 Oct 2025 |
Yes
|
| How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest? |
Multiple choice |
412 |
8 Sep 2025 |
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
|
| What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? |
Multiple choice |
341 |
12 Aug 2025 |
More than or equal to 2.6% but le…
|
| Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? |
Yes/No |
474 |
12 Aug 2025 |
Yes
|
| Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? |
Yes/No |
483 |
7 Aug 2025 |
No
|
| Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? |
Yes/No |
329 |
7 Aug 2025 |
No
|
| Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? |
Yes/No |
429 |
7 Aug 2025 |
No
|
| Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? |
Multiple select |
641 |
7 Aug 2025 |
Not resolved
|
| Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? |
Yes/No |
401 |
1 Aug 2025 |
No
|
| Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025? |
Yes/No |
220 |
25 Jul 2025 |
No
|
| Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? |
Yes/No |
1,203 |
24 Jul 2025 |
No
|
| Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? |
Yes/No |
1,498 |
1 Jul 2025 |
No
|
| Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? |
Yes/No |
350 |
1 Jul 2025 |
No
|
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? |
Yes/No |
248 |
26 Jun 2025 |
No
|
| Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? |
Yes/No |
154 |
23 Jun 2025 |
Yes
|
| On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? |
Yes/No |
1,668 |
31 May 2025 |
No
|
| Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025? |
Multiple select |
1,026 |
16 May 2025 |
Su-35 fighter jets
|
| By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? |
Yes/No |
1,029 |
16 May 2025 |
No
|
| Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? |
Yes/No |
618 |
28 Apr 2025 |
No
|
| What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024? |
Multiple choice |
321 |
14 Feb 2025 |
More than or equal to 28%
|
| Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? |
Yes/No |
608 |
3 Feb 2025 |
No
|
| By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? |
Yes/No |
1,186 |
17 Jan 2025 |
No
|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? |
Yes/No |
698 |
15 Jan 2025 |
Yes
|
| Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? |
Multiple select |
805 |
3 Jan 2025 |
Not resolved
|
| Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? |
Yes/No |
701 |
3 Jan 2025 |
No
|
| Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? |
Multiple choice |
1,046 |
3 Jan 2025 |
No, the stockpile will increase (…
|
| Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? |
Multiple select |
1,102 |
3 Jan 2025 |
Not resolved
|
| Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? |
Yes/No |
763 |
3 Jan 2025 |
No
|
| Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? |
Yes/No |
921 |
3 Jan 2025 |
No
|
| Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026? |
Yes/No |
200 |
13 Dec 2024 |
Yes
|
| Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? |
Yes/No |
1,566 |
4 Dec 2024 |
No
|
| Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? |
Yes/No |
679 |
2 Dec 2024 |
No
|
| Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025? |
Yes/No |
356 |
7 Aug 2024 |
Yes
|
| Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? |
Yes/No |
752 |
1 Aug 2024 |
No
|
| For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? |
Multiple select |
594 |
19 Jul 2024 |
Not resolved
|
| From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? |
Multiple choice |
440 |
3 Jul 2024 |
Less than or equal to 499
|
| From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? |
Multiple choice |
586 |
3 Jul 2024 |
Less than or equal to 49
|
| Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? |
Yes/No |
726 |
3 Jul 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? |
Multiple choice |
419 |
3 Jul 2024 |
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
|
| Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024? |
Yes/No |
160 |
3 Jul 2024 |
No
|
| Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? |
Yes/No |
1,357 |
6 Jun 2024 |
No
|
| Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? |
Yes/No |
1,025 |
6 Jun 2024 |
No
|
| Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? |
Yes/No |
683 |
5 Jun 2024 |
No
|
| Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? |
Yes/No |
2,016 |
2 May 2024 |
No
|
| Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? |
Yes/No |
470 |
2 May 2024 |
No
|
| Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024? |
Yes/No |
87 |
24 Apr 2024 |
Yes
|
| Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? |
Yes/No |
267 |
2 Apr 2024 |
No
|
| What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? |
Multiple choice |
716 |
1 Apr 2024 |
More than or equal to 6%
|
| Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? |
Yes/No |
634 |
1 Apr 2024 |
No
|
| What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024? |
Multiple choice |
574 |
1 Apr 2024 |
Less than $90
|
| Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? |
Yes/No |
777 |
1 Mar 2024 |
No
|
| Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? |
Yes/No |
556 |
27 Feb 2024 |
No
|
| Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? |
Yes/No |
812 |
12 Feb 2024 |
No
|
| When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? |
Multiple choice |
745 |
12 Feb 2024 |
Not before 1Q 2024
|
| Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? |
Yes/No |
428 |
22 Jan 2024 |
Yes
|
| From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India? |
Yes/No |
374 |
17 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? |
Yes/No |
374 |
17 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined? |
Multiple choice |
400 |
17 Jan 2024 |
Less than or equal to 24
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces? |
Yes/No |
406 |
17 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces? |
Yes/No |
296 |
17 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? |
Yes/No |
453 |
17 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan? |
Yes/No |
508 |
16 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen? |
Yes/No |
416 |
16 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran? |
Yes/No |
470 |
16 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan? |
Yes/No |
392 |
16 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record? |
Multiple choice |
494 |
16 Jan 2024 |
Less than 6,000
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo? |
Yes/No |
449 |
16 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? |
Yes/No |
729 |
16 Jan 2024 |
Yes
|
| Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? |
Yes/No |
1,104 |
11 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? |
Yes/No |
646 |
5 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? |
Yes/No |
464 |
3 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? |
Yes/No |
716 |
3 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? |
Yes/No |
467 |
3 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? |
Yes/No |
988 |
3 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? |
Yes/No |
792 |
3 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? |
Yes/No |
695 |
2 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits? |
Yes/No |
670 |
2 Jan 2024 |
No
|
| What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? |
Multiple choice |
720 |
2 Jan 2024 |
More than or equal to 17% but les…
|
| From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India? |
Yes/No |
300 |
8 Dec 2023 |
No
|
| Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? |
Yes/No |
883 |
21 Nov 2023 |
Yes
|
| From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia? |
Yes/No |
448 |
16 Nov 2023 |
Yes
|
| Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? |
Yes/No |
506 |
6 Nov 2023 |
Yes
|
| Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? |
Yes/No |
675 |
3 Nov 2023 |
No
|
| Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023? |
Multiple select |
827 |
18 Sep 2023 |
Samsung
|
| Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? |
Yes/No |
420 |
11 Sep 2023 |
No
|
| Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? |
Yes/No |
278 |
8 Sep 2023 |
No
|
| Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? |
Yes/No |
282 |
5 Sep 2023 |
Yes
|
| How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023? |
Multiple choice |
408 |
1 Sep 2023 |
Less than 4 million
|
| Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023? |
Yes/No |
405 |
1 Sep 2023 |
No
|
| Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023? |
Yes/No |
188 |
1 Sep 2023 |
No
|
| How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree? |
Multiple choice |
285 |
1 Sep 2023 |
More than or equal to 40 but less…
|
| What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)? |
Multiple choice |
225 |
28 Aug 2023 |
Less than 3%
|
| What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
272 |
28 Aug 2023 |
More than $650 billion but less t…
|
| What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
606 |
28 Aug 2023 |
More than $8.5 billion but less t…
|
| What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
620 |
28 Aug 2023 |
More than $410 billion
|
| What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
561 |
28 Aug 2023 |
Between $35 billion and $45 billi…
|
| What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
638 |
28 Aug 2023 |
More than $5 billion but less tha…
|
| Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? |
Yes/No |
230 |
28 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? |
Yes/No |
603 |
25 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank? |
Yes/No |
398 |
25 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province? |
Yes/No |
279 |
25 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia? |
Yes/No |
310 |
25 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? |
Yes/No |
485 |
25 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023? |
Yes/No |
260 |
25 Aug 2023 |
Yes
|
| From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict? |
Yes/No |
272 |
23 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will 200 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in the North Central and North West zones of Nigeria? |
Yes/No |
238 |
23 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? |
Yes/No |
783 |
21 Aug 2023 |
No
|
| Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023? |
Multiple select |
466 |
10 Aug 2023 |
Intel Corporation
|
| Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? |
Yes/No |
481 |
11 Jul 2023 |
No
|
| Will Kosovo and Serbia sign an EU-backed proposal aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations by 30 June 2023? |
Yes/No |
162 |
10 Jul 2023 |
No
|
| Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023? |
Yes/No |
199 |
10 Jul 2023 |
No
|
| How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? |
Multiple choice |
393 |
10 Jul 2023 |
2
|
| On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center? |
Multiple choice |
306 |
1 Jun 2023 |
Between 107 and 111, inclusive
|
| Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? |
Yes/No |
102 |
15 May 2023 |
Yes
|
| What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023? |
Multiple choice |
162 |
15 May 2023 |
More than or equal to $30 million…
|
| How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
199 |
24 Apr 2023 |
More than or equal to 3,000
|
| Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? |
Yes/No |
646 |
21 Apr 2023 |
No
|
| Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? |
Multiple choice |
855 |
21 Apr 2023 |
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Mo…
|
| In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications? |
Yes/No |
79 |
21 Apr 2023 |
Yes
|
| Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
86 |
21 Apr 2023 |
EU
|
| What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
161 |
20 Apr 2023 |
Less than 10
|
| Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
194 |
20 Apr 2023 |
EU
|
| How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
238 |
20 Apr 2023 |
4 or lower
|
| Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022? |
Yes/No |
258 |
20 Apr 2023 |
No
|
| What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
215 |
20 Apr 2023 |
Less than 22%
|
| How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
216 |
20 Apr 2023 |
Less than 3
|
| How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? |
Multiple choice |
332 |
18 Apr 2023 |
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
|
| From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon? |
Multiple choice |
302 |
18 Apr 2023 |
Less than 200
|
| From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? |
Multiple choice |
844 |
17 Apr 2023 |
More than or equal to 200 but les…
|
| Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? |
Yes/No |
493 |
13 Apr 2023 |
No
|
| What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023? |
Multiple choice |
206 |
11 Apr 2023 |
Less than $4.60
|
| Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? |
Yes/No |
940 |
5 Apr 2023 |
No
|
| Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? |
Yes/No |
761 |
5 Apr 2023 |
No
|
| On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035? |
Multiple choice |
268 |
5 Apr 2023 |
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
|
| How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022? |
Multiple choice |
128 |
5 Apr 2023 |
More than or equal to 350 million…
|
| Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? |
Yes/No |
590 |
5 Apr 2023 |
No
|
| Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? |
Multiple select |
426 |
5 Apr 2023 |
Japan
|
| How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
461 |
5 Apr 2023 |
More than or equal to 300 billion…
|
| Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? |
Yes/No |
140 |
4 Apr 2023 |
No
|
| Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023? |
Yes/No |
267 |
31 Mar 2023 |
Yes
|
| How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023? |
Multiple choice |
490 |
29 Mar 2023 |
More than or equal to 8
|
| Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? |
Yes/No |
1,512 |
23 Mar 2023 |
No
|
| Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? |
Yes/No |
233 |
17 Mar 2023 |
Yes
|
| Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023? |
Yes/No |
134 |
6 Feb 2023 |
No
|
| Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? |
Yes/No |
236 |
1 Feb 2023 |
No
|
| What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022? |
Multiple choice |
332 |
25 Jan 2023 |
More than or equal to 5% but less…
|
| Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? |
Yes/No |
622 |
10 Jan 2023 |
No
|
| Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? |
Yes/No |
680 |
10 Jan 2023 |
No
|
| Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? |
Yes/No |
722 |
10 Jan 2023 |
No
|
| In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website? |
Yes/No |
284 |
10 Jan 2023 |
No
|
| By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe? |
Yes/No |
627 |
10 Jan 2023 |
No
|
| Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? |
Yes/No |
1,857 |
10 Jan 2023 |
Yes
|
| Will the price per chip-hour of Google’s cloud-based Tensor Processing Unit (TPU v4) be greater than $3.22 on January 1, 2023? |
Yes/No |
156 |
10 Jan 2023 |
No
|
| Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? |
Yes/No |
415 |
5 Jan 2023 |
No
|
| By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO? |
Yes/No |
256 |
3 Jan 2023 |
No
|
| What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022? |
Multiple choice |
125 |
30 Dec 2022 |
A coalition government is formed…
|
| How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? |
Multiple choice |
331 |
22 Dec 2022 |
Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive
|
| What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? |
Multiple choice |
71 |
21 Dec 2022 |
Between $40 billion and $50 billi…
|
| What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? |
Multiple choice |
71 |
21 Dec 2022 |
More than $380 billion
|
| Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022? |
Yes/No |
161 |
28 Nov 2022 |
Yes
|
| Will Google score more wins than any other submitter in the next round of the MLPerf training benchmarking suite? |
Yes/No |
80 |
14 Nov 2022 |
No
|
| How many total unique AI systems will Baidu and Alibaba submit for the next round of the MLPerf benchmarking suite? |
Multiple choice |
72 |
10 Nov 2022 |
Less than or equal to 4
|
| In the next edition of the Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings, will there be 6 or more Chinese universities with a research score of 60 or greater in computer science? |
Yes/No |
40 |
1 Nov 2022 |
No
|
| How many U.S. teams will be named as a Winner or Runner Up at the 2022 iGEM Grand Jamboree in Paris? |
Multiple choice |
56 |
31 Oct 2022 |
1
|
| Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election? |
Yes/No |
129 |
27 Sep 2022 |
Yes
|
| Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22? |
Multiple choice |
285 |
10 Aug 2022 |
More than or equal to $2.5 billion
|
| Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022? |
Yes/No |
201 |
1 Aug 2022 |
No
|
| Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022? |
Yes/No |
147 |
1 Aug 2022 |
No
|
| Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022? |
Multiple choice |
165 |
1 Aug 2022 |
No, a vote will not occur
|
| Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022? |
Multiple choice |
188 |
1 Aug 2022 |
No
|
| How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022? |
Multiple choice |
158 |
29 Jul 2022 |
Less than $17 billion
|
| Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? |
Multiple choice |
343 |
28 Jul 2022 |
Yes, for only manufacturing
|
| How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022? |
Multiple choice |
169 |
27 Jul 2022 |
More than or equal to 100
|
| Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? |
Yes/No |
551 |
23 Jul 2022 |
Yes
|
| How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022? |
Multiple choice |
174 |
21 Jul 2022 |
Between 10 and 14, inclusive
|
| What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022? |
Multiple choice |
322 |
7 Jul 2022 |
More than or equal to 60% but les…
|
| By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO? |
Yes/No |
192 |
1 Jul 2022 |
No
|
| Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022? |
Yes/No |
178 |
1 Jul 2022 |
No
|
| On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised? |
Multiple choice |
264 |
30 Jun 2022 |
More than 300 million
|
| What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022? |
Multiple choice |
173 |
6 Jun 2022 |
More than or equal to $105 but le…
|
| What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022? |
Multiple choice |
310 |
2 Jun 2022 |
Less than $3000
|
| What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? |
Multiple choice |
584 |
1 Jun 2022 |
More than 80%
|
| Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? |
Yes/No |
808 |
31 May 2022 |
Yes
|
| What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? |
Multiple choice |
84 |
25 May 2022 |
More than 25% but less than or eq…
|
| What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? |
Multiple choice |
553 |
25 May 2022 |
Between 30 and 40, inclusive
|
| What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? |
Multiple choice |
97 |
25 May 2022 |
More than $640 billion
|
| Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? |
Yes/No |
137 |
25 May 2022 |
No
|
| Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? |
Yes/No |
145 |
25 May 2022 |
No
|
| What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022? |
Multiple choice |
186 |
11 May 2022 |
Less than $240
|
| When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? |
Multiple choice |
1,026 |
28 Apr 2022 |
Between April 1, 2022 and June 30…
|
| When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD? |
Multiple choice |
381 |
28 Apr 2022 |
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April…
|
| What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? |
Multiple choice |
255 |
26 Apr 2022 |
More than $680 billion
|
| In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? |
Multiple choice |
85 |
23 Mar 2022 |
More than 35
|
| Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? |
Yes/No |
736 |
28 Feb 2022 |
Yes
|
| What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? |
Multiple choice |
100 |
24 Feb 2022 |
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5
|
| Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? |
Yes/No |
466 |
8 Feb 2022 |
No
|
| How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
277 |
31 Jan 2022 |
More than 130,000
|
| How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
206 |
31 Jan 2022 |
More than $25 billion
|
| How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
178 |
31 Jan 2022 |
More than $100 billion
|
| How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
124 |
31 Jan 2022 |
More than 10,000 but less than or…
|
| Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? |
Yes/No |
202 |
4 Jan 2022 |
No
|
| Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? |
Yes/No |
524 |
4 Jan 2022 |
No
|
| Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? |
Yes/No |
395 |
4 Jan 2022 |
No
|
| Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? |
Yes/No |
402 |
4 Jan 2022 |
No
|
| How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
200 |
4 Jan 2022 |
Less than 26,000
|
| How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? |
Multiple choice |
400 |
4 Jan 2022 |
Between 800 and 4,000
|
| How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? |
Multiple choice |
119 |
4 Jan 2022 |
Zero
|
| What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
189 |
4 Jan 2022 |
Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive
|
| Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? |
Yes/No |
654 |
4 Jan 2022 |
No
|
| What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? |
Multiple choice |
149 |
3 Jan 2022 |
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive
|
| What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? |
Multiple choice |
234 |
3 Jan 2022 |
More than 3% but less than or equ…
|
| What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work? |
Multiple choice |
377 |
18 Nov 2021 |
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive
|
| When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? |
Multiple choice |
327 |
18 Nov 2021 |
After November 17, 2021
|
| What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021? |
Multiple choice |
66 |
16 Nov 2021 |
More than 0.35 but less than or e…
|
| What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021? |
Multiple choice |
63 |
16 Nov 2021 |
More than 0.1
|
| What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? |
Multiple choice |
102 |
16 Nov 2021 |
Less than 2%
|
| [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? |
Multiple choice |
342 |
22 Oct 2021 |
30-40%
|
| What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? |
Multiple choice |
79 |
23 Sep 2021 |
More than $5.7 billion
|
| What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021? |
Multiple choice |
102 |
30 Jul 2021 |
More than $590 billion
|
| Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? |
Yes/No |
157 |
1 Jul 2021 |
No
|
| Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? |
Yes/No |
380 |
1 Jul 2021 |
No
|
| Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021? |
Yes/No |
175 |
3 Jun 2021 |
No
|
| How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
109 |
26 Apr 2021 |
More than $400 million but less t…
|
| How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
85 |
17 Apr 2021 |
More than 54,000
|
| How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
157 |
13 Apr 2021 |
Less than 675
|
| What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work? |
Multiple choice |
89 |
18 Mar 2021 |
More than 7% but less than or equ…
|
| What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? |
Multiple choice |
242 |
7 Mar 2021 |
More than 73% but less than or eq…
|
| What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? |
Multiple choice |
125 |
18 Feb 2021 |
Between $20 and $100, inclusive
|
| What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020? |
Multiple choice |
63 |
5 Feb 2021 |
More than $450 billion but less t…
|
| How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
98 |
1 Feb 2021 |
Less than $200 million
|
| How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
75 |
1 Feb 2021 |
Between $40 billion and $60 billi…
|
| How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
94 |
1 Feb 2021 |
More than $16 billion but less th…
|
| What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020? |
Multiple choice |
66 |
4 Jan 2021 |
More than 0.9 but less than or eq…
|
| What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
90 |
4 Jan 2021 |
More than 33% but less than or eq…
|
| When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election? |
Multiple choice |
48 |
13 Nov 2020 |
Before November 25
|
| What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)? |
Multiple choice |
73 |
3 Nov 2020 |
More than $230 billion but less t…
|
| Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? |
Yes/No |
326 |
3 Nov 2020 |
No
|
| Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020? |
Yes/No |
158 |
3 Nov 2020 |
No
|
| What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
68 |
21 Oct 2020 |
Less than 2%
|
| How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
88 |
20 Oct 2020 |
More than 35,000 but less than or…
|
| Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? |
Yes/No |
172 |
20 Oct 2020 |
No
|
| How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
115 |
1 Oct 2020 |
More than 10,000 but less than or…
|
| What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
169 |
1 Oct 2020 |
More than 40% but less than or eq…
|
| Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? |
Yes/No |
255 |
1 Oct 2020 |
No
|
| Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020? |
Yes/No |
221 |
15 Sep 2020 |
No
|
| Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020? |
Yes/No |
295 |
14 Sep 2020 |
No
|
| Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020? |
Yes/No |
236 |
1 Sep 2020 |
No
|
| What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive? |
Multiple choice |
63 |
21 Aug 2020 |
More than 1.0% but less than or e…
|
| Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020? |
Yes/No |
174 |
11 Aug 2020 |
No
|
| Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020? |
Yes/No |
161 |
1 Aug 2020 |
No
|
| Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020? |
Yes/No |
110 |
18 Jul 2020 |
No
|
| Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020? |
Yes/No |
149 |
15 Jul 2020 |
Yes
|
| Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020? |
Yes/No |
56 |
14 Jul 2020 |
No
|
| Will either China or India respond to the events in Aksai Chin on June 15, 2020 by launching an airstrike, missile attack, or using another form of lethal force by June 28, 2020? |
Yes/No |
86 |
29 Jun 2020 |
No
|