Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?

Multiple choice Opened 31 January 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 28 July 2022 343 forecasts 75 forecasters

The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence identified developments in micro-electronics and semiconductors as critical to the United States' competitive strategy (NSCAI Chapter 13). The Facilitating American-Built Semiconductors Act would offer an investment tax credit for investments in semiconductor manufacturing (Congress.Gov, Senate Finance). Tech companies are lobbying not only for passage, but for expansion of the credit to cover semiconductor design as well (Bloomberg, SIA).

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes, for both manufacturing and design	24%	Did not happen
Yes, for only manufacturing	56%	Happened
Yes, for only design	2%	Did not happen
No	18%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Yes, for only manufacturing Yes, for both manufacturing and design No Yes, for only design

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.