How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. For 2021 Q1, the answer was 60,006.
Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development.
Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021.
Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings.
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for the following scenarios:
- The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
- Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 70,000 | 5% | Did not happen |
| Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive | 21% | Did not happen |
| More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000 | 38% | Did not happen |
| More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000 | 27% | Did not happen |
| More than 130,000 | 9% | Happened |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.