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How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Multiple choice Opened 12 March 2021 Closed 1 July 2021 Resolved 31 January 2022 277 forecasts 108 forecasters

Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. For 2021 Q1, the answer was 60,006. 

Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development.

Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. 

Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings.

The data underlying the graph is here.

This question is a metric for the following scenarios:

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Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Less than 70,000 5% Did not happen
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive 21% Did not happen
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000 38% Did not happen
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000 27% Did not happen
More than 130,000 9% Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mar 2021 May 2021 Jul 2021 38% 27% 21% 9% 5%
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000 Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive More than 130,000 More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000 Less than 70,000
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.