Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world’s largest manufacturer of semiconductors and a critical supplier of the cutting-edge chips needed to produce everything from cars and computers to medical equipment and other modern electronics (Time, SIA). As geographic specialization of semiconductor manufacturing has increased, the manufacture of critical components has become increasingly concentrated in certain regions. As a result, the semiconductor supply chain is significantly more vulnerable to disruption (Reuters). The prospect of disruption in Taiwan is especially concerning because Taiwan is home to 92% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity (Semiconductor Industry Association). Recent research has shown that even a short-term disruption at a Taiwan fabrication facility could have a long-lasting impact on the supply chain (HBR). Natural disasters and geopolitical tensions have the potential to disrupt TSMC’s production (Ars Techinca, PC Gamer).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve using reputable news-media reports, and will resolve “yes” if any TSMC fab in Taiwan is shut down or stops production for more than one day due to a non-scheduled emergency (e.g., natural disasters, cyberattacks, military attacks, etc.). News reports must clearly indicate that a facility is shut down for at least 24 hours (e.g., shutting down on Monday morning and re-opening Tuesday afternoon). A shut down must begin before 12:00 AM (UTC+08:00) on 1 April 2024 in Taiwan to count towards resolution for this question.
A fab will be considered shut down if the facility closes or stops production of semiconductors. Examples of shutdowns include when TSMC factories in Taiwan were shut down for several days after a computer virus attack in 2018 and when TSMC suspended all domestic production for two days after 77 employees contracted the coronavirus in 2021 (The Verge, Nikkei).
A fab will be considered shut down if the facility closes or stops production of semiconductors. Examples of shutdowns include when TSMC factories in Taiwan were shut down for several days after a computer virus attack in 2018 and when TSMC suspended all domestic production for two days after 77 employees contracted the coronavirus in 2021 (The Verge, Nikkei).
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.