How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, European nations and the United States have provided unprecedented levels of military aid to Ukraine. Europe has been the biggest provider of aid to Ukraine, allocating €138 billion in financial, military, and humanitarian assistance between January 2022 and February 2025, while the United States has provided €114 billion (Kiel Institute).
The United States, however, has been Ukraine's single largest military donor, delivering or allocating over €64 billion in weapons, ammunition, and other military assistance since January 2022. Of this amount, just under €14 billion was specifically for heavy weapons, while European countries collectively donated just under €62 billion in military allocations, with €19 billion designated for heavy weapons (Reuters).
Recent trends from the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker show that since the Trump administration took office in early 2025, U.S. aid to Ukraine has come to a relative standstill while European support has remained consistent, widening the gap in total allocations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's Ukraine Support Tracker, and will include all aid allocated from 24 January 2022 through 31 December 2025.
The amount of military aid allocated to Ukraine from Europe and the United States can be found in the Excel spreadsheet containing the Ukraine Support Tracker Data Set. In the Excel sheet, the tab “Aggregates by Country Group” shows the total military aid allocated to Ukraine in billions of euros. The values in rows for “Geographic Europe” and “United States” and the column “Military allocated” will be used to determine the level of aid allocated to Ukraine by European countries (Cell I35 in the version published in April 2025) and the United States (Cell I21).
The United States, however, has been Ukraine's single largest military donor, delivering or allocating over €64 billion in weapons, ammunition, and other military assistance since January 2022. Of this amount, just under €14 billion was specifically for heavy weapons, while European countries collectively donated just under €62 billion in military allocations, with €19 billion designated for heavy weapons (Reuters).
Recent trends from the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker show that since the Trump administration took office in early 2025, U.S. aid to Ukraine has come to a relative standstill while European support has remained consistent, widening the gap in total allocations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's Ukraine Support Tracker, and will include all aid allocated from 24 January 2022 through 31 December 2025.
The amount of military aid allocated to Ukraine from Europe and the United States can be found in the Excel spreadsheet containing the Ukraine Support Tracker Data Set. In the Excel sheet, the tab “Aggregates by Country Group” shows the total military aid allocated to Ukraine in billions of euros. The values in rows for “Geographic Europe” and “United States” and the column “Military allocated” will be used to determine the level of aid allocated to Ukraine by European countries (Cell I35 in the version published in April 2025) and the United States (Cell I21).
Outcome
| Answer | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 1% | Did not happen |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 1% | Did not happen |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 5% | Did not happen |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 55% | Happened |
| €30 billion or more | 38% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.
Crowd forecast over time
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
€30 billion or more
More than €0 but less than €10 billion