Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?
Egypt’s headline urban inflation rate rose to 31.9% in February 2023, its highest level in over five years, as political instability, the coronavirus pandemic, and supply chain disruptions have weakened Egypt’s economy (Reuters, PBS). This jump of over 6 percentage points from January alarmed economists, leading some to anticipate that the Central Bank of Egypt will raise interest rates by as much as 300 basis points in their March meeting (Egypt Independent).
This question will be resolved using annual headline urban inflation rate data reported by the Central Bank of Egypt.
NOTE: Some publications report the core inflation rate (which was 40.3% for February 2023) or the inflation rate that includes rural areas (which was 32.9%) instead of or alongside the headline urban inflation rate. Please ensure that you are using the correct inflation rate when conducting your analysis.
Read more about the Egypt's inflation crisis on the INFER blog.
Additional Reading:
This question will be resolved using annual headline urban inflation rate data reported by the Central Bank of Egypt.
NOTE: Some publications report the core inflation rate (which was 40.3% for February 2023) or the inflation rate that includes rural areas (which was 32.9%) instead of or alongside the headline urban inflation rate. Please ensure that you are using the correct inflation rate when conducting your analysis.
Read more about the Egypt's inflation crisis on the INFER blog.
Additional Reading:
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.