Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
OpenAI released GPT-3 in June 2020, and GPT-4 in March 2023 (Forbes). Although there have been rumors that OpenAI has already begun working on GPT-5, the CEO of OpenAI has denied this (The Verge).
Resolution criteria: This question will resolve “yes” if OpenAI makes a fifth generation GPT (i.e., GPT-5) available to members of the public to use. It is expected that Open AI’s next GPT will be called “GPT-5” but in the event that it is released with another name, the new GPT must be the successor to GPT-4, as opposed to an update (e.g., GPT-4.5). GPT-5 must be available for anyone to access, whether for free or through a paid subscription, to count for resolution.
Read more about the possible release of GPT-5 on the INFER blog.
Resolution criteria: This question will resolve “yes” if OpenAI makes a fifth generation GPT (i.e., GPT-5) available to members of the public to use. It is expected that Open AI’s next GPT will be called “GPT-5” but in the event that it is released with another name, the new GPT must be the successor to GPT-4, as opposed to an update (e.g., GPT-4.5). GPT-5 must be available for anyone to access, whether for free or through a paid subscription, to count for resolution.
Read more about the possible release of GPT-5 on the INFER blog.
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.