RAND Forecasting
Initiative
Archive
The RAND Forecasting Initiative has concluded. This is a permanent read-only archive. Accounts, forecasting, and comments are no longer available.

← All questions

Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?

Multiple select Opened 14 July 2022 Closed 1 July 2023 Resolved 10 August 2023 466 forecasts 66 forecasters
In September of 2021, Intel announced its second generation neuromorphic chip (Intel). Neuromorphic computing promises increased computational power and decreased energy consumption, both of which are needed to fully realize the potential of Artificial Intelligence (Forbes, Quanta). 
This question will be resolved using official announcements posted on the newsrooms or media pages of each of the companies. 
The question will be resolved as “yes” for each company if they introduce a new neuromorphic chip (e.g. the Loihi2) or system (e.g. Pohoiki Springs) on or before 30 June 2023 in their local time. Announcements about the application of existing chips or systems that the company has already developed will not count (e.g., BrainChip's May 16th announcement about Mercedes using BrainChip’s neuromorphic chip in its EQXX Concept Car).
A neuromorphic chip is a single piece of integrated circuiting (IC) hardware capable of native neuromorphic computing. A neuromorphic system is a system that is composed of one or more neuromorphic chips. Typically, they comprise many chips to handle much bigger loads than a single chip is designed to handle. Because neuromorphic chips are not commercially available (unlike ordinary computing chips), such systems must be built and made accessible (through the cloud) by the manufacturers themselves, and assigned names, such as Pohoiki Springs. For the purposes of this question, any system that contains at least one neuromorphic computing chip and has been announced as such is a neuromorphic system will be considered a neuromorphic system.
This question is part of our broader focus on microelectronics. You can learn more about microelectronics by checking out our recent topic brief.

Outcome

Answer Final crowd forecast Resolution
Intel Corporation 0% Happened
IBM Corporation 3% Did not happen
BrainChip Holdings Ltd. 2% Did not happen
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. 2% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Jul 2022 Feb 2023 Jul 2023 3% 2% 2% 0%
IBM Corporation Intel Corporation BrainChip Holdings Ltd. Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.