How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 13 October 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 5 April 2023 128 forecasts 53 forecasters

Synthetic biology has the potential to play a key role in creating a circular economy where bioengineered microorganisms are used to recycle plastics and other petrochemicals. On, a Swiss running shoe company, has partnered with synthetic biology company LanzaTech to produce CleanCloud, an EVA foam for running shoes made from recycled carbon emissions rather than conventional petroleum-based EVA. EVA is one of On’s most used materials, and this partnership plays a significant role in On’s efforts to become more sustainable and develop a circular supply chain.
This question will close for forecasting on 31 December 2022 and resolve using “Net sales by product” in On’s fourth quarter 2022 financial statement, which is expected to be released in March 2023. Net sales from shoes from past quarters are available below. Numbers are reported in thousands of Swiss Francs (CHF).

Q2 2022: 280,621
Q1 2022: 222,503
Q4 2021: 179,729
Q3 2021: 205,023
Q2 2021: 166,840
Q1 2021: 131,696
Q4 2020: 120,617
Q3 2020: 124,074

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 300 million CHF	48%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 300 million CHF but less than 350 million CHF	47%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 350 million CHF	6%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 300 million CHF but less than 350 million CHF Less than 300 million CHF More than or equal to 350 million CHF

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.