How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Multiple choice Opened 3 August 2020 Closed 7 December 2020 Resolved 26 April 2021 109 forecasts 83 forecasters

Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years.

The data underlying the graph is here.

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Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than $200 million	3%	Did not happen
Between $200 million and $300 million, inclusive	7%	Did not happen
More than $300 million but less than or equal to $400 million	22%	Did not happen
More than $400 million but less than or equal to $500 million	35%	Happened
More than $500 million	33%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

No aggregate forecast history is available for this question.