What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 26 May 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 20 April 2023 161 forecasts 38 forecasters

Question will be resolved using Github data from the OECD AI Policy Observatory’s data on AI software development. The link will take you to the “Contributions to public AI projects by country and project impact” page. Set the following parameters for the data:

AI projects impact indicator (# of forks): “Very high impact (>100 forks)”
“Percentage” checkbox: checked

See here for more information about the OECD’s methodology and the Github data. Question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and resolved when the OECD database is updated.
New to AI? Check out our blog post on AI competitiveness for a list of resources to jumpstart your research. To learn more about the OECD data and how it's used by policy makers, check out this video.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 10	20%	Happened
More than or equal to 10 but less than 15	38%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 15 but less than 20	35%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 20	7%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 15 but less than 20 More than or equal to 10 but less than 15 Less than 10 More than or equal to 20

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.