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In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?

Yes/No Opened 17 March 2022 Closed 1 November 2022 Resolved 10 January 2023 284 forecasts 60 forecasters
Photolithography is a critical weakness of China’s semiconductor industry (CCS Insight). Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co (SMEE), the leading Chinese manufacturer, currently offers lithography equipment to support chips with 90nm nodes. In September, SMEE announced that it had delivered a new product employing 3d chip packaging, but they did not announce its resolution and the new packaging product is not currently available on its website (CGTN, WeChat). 
Question will be resolved based on which products are listed on SMEE’s lithography products page. As of 17 March 2022, the 600 series referenced above is the most advanced lithography machine.   Additional Reading: 

Outcome

Outcome Final crowd forecast Resolution
Yes 3% Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mar 2022 Jul 2022 Nov 2022 3% Yes
The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.