From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Multiple choice Opened 25 May 2023 Closed 1 June 2024 Resolved 3 July 2024 586 forecasts 65 forecasters

This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data becomes available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts due to gang violence in previous years:

2018: 668
2019: 535
2020: 222
2021: 256
2022: 217
2023 (as of 18 May 2023): 18

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than or equal to 49	98%	Happened
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	2%	Did not happen
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	0%	Did not happen
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 200	0%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Less than or equal to 49 Between 50 and 99, inclusive Between 100 and 149, inclusive Between 150 and 199, inclusive More than or equal to 200

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.