Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Yes/No Opened 27 February 2024 Closed 1 March 2025 Resolved 7 August 2024 356 forecasts 73 forecasters

A cyberattack disrupted services at around 70 percent of Iran’s fuel stations in mid-December 2023 (Al Jazeera). A group linked to Israel called Predatory Sparrow has publicly taken credit for the disruption. Israel and Iran have a long history of cyberattacks between them, resulting in tension that could be aggravated by the Israel-Palestine conflict (Politico). Predatory Sparrow previously took credit for a similar cyberattack in 2021, but the Iranian government blamed an unnamed “state actor” (BBC).
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved as "Yes" if before 1 March 2025, the Iranian government, Iranian state media, or other reputable sources report that Iran has been affected by cyber attack targeting critical infrastructure or if the group that makes such an attack publicly takes credit for it. The U.S. GAO identified the following sectors as critical infrastructure that could be vulnerable to cyberattacks:

Chemical
Commercial facilities
Communications
Critical manufacturing
Dams
Defense industrial base
Emergency services
Energy
Financial services
Food and agriculture
Government facilities
Healthcare and public health
Information technology
Nuclear reactors, materials, and waste
Transportation systems
Water and wastewater systems

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Yes	80%	Happened
No	20%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

Yes No

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.