What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 31 March 2022 Closed 1 January 2023 Resolved 25 January 2023 332 forecasts 62 forecasters

In the face of the semi-conductor shortage, the U.S. is seeking to increase its chip manufacturing capabilities by developing domestic fabs (WSJ, Forbes, Roll Call). Photolithography is a critical component of these fabrication facilities, and ASML is the world leader in that field (Fortune, ETF).

Question will be resolved based on ASML’s 2022 full year results. The full year results for 2021 were published in January of 2022. The percentage of lithography sales by region/country can be found on the pie charts labeled “Region gross (ship to location)” on page 9 of the investor presentation, which can be downloaded directly from that page.

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than 5%	7%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 5% but less than 10%	83%	Happened
Between 10% and 15%, inclusive	10%	Did not happen
More than 15%	1%	Did not happen

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 5% but less than 10% Less than 5% Between 10% and 15%, inclusive More than 15%

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.