How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?

Multiple choice Opened 23 June 2022 Closed 1 August 2022 Resolved 27 July 2022 169 forecasts 81 forecasters

Amidst fears of a recession, rising interest rates, and a declining stock market, May 2022 saw the number of tech startup layoffs rise to levels not seen since May 2020, according to layoffs.fyi (Quartz, TechCrunch, Fortune). Layoffs.fyi is a crowdsourced data aggregator tracking tech startup layoffs since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus far, layoffs.fyi has recorded the following numbers of "New Layoff Events" in 2022:

Jan: 4
Feb: 9
Mar: 17
Apr: 26
May: 75
June: 118 (in progress)

This question will resolve on 1 August 2022 at 9:00 AM EDT using the total number of new layoff events in the month of July on layoffs.fyi. The list of layoff events in July can be seen on the "Companies w/ Layoffs" tab:

Select the "filter" button
Click "+ Add condition" and set the following: "Date" "is on or after" "exact date" "7/1/2022"
Click "+ Add condition" and set the following: "Date" "is on or before" "exact date" "7/31/2022"
Ensure that the "Exclude public companies" box is unchecked
The number of layoffs is the number of unique records listed at the bottom of the "Company" column.

Historical numbers of layoff events in each month can be seen by selecting the "Layoff Charts" tab and hovering your cursor over the relevant blue bar in the chart "New startup layoffs since COVID-19 (by month)".

Outcome

Answer	Final crowd forecast	Resolution
Less than or equal to 74	0%	Did not happen
Between 75 and 99, inclusive	2%	Did not happen
More than or equal to 100	97%	Happened

“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.

Crowd forecast over time

More than or equal to 100 Between 75 and 99, inclusive Less than or equal to 74

The aggregate crowd probability, one point per day, from RFI's primary aggregation method. Gaps are days with no computed aggregate. Individual forecasts are not shown.