Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports.
For the purposes of this question:
For the purposes of this question:
- “Events involving Russian security forces” refers to events directly and plausibly attributable to forces that fall under the command of members of the Security Council of Russia.
- “Events resulting in 25 or more fatalities” refers to one or more events totaling 25 or more fatalities by 1 April 2023.
- A list of NATO member states is provided here.
- The fatalities must occur on NATO soil or in NATO airspace or territorial waters. An airstrike or remote attack launched from outside NATO territory will count if it results in fatalities within NATO territory.
Outcome
| Outcome | Final crowd forecast | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Did not happen |
“Final crowd forecast” is the last aggregate crowd probability computed before the question closed – the right-hand end of the chart below, which this table is the accessible equivalent of.